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We propose a new method for decomposing realized stock market capital gains into contributions from changes to the real yield curve, equity premia, and expected dividends. We then show how to implement the return decomposition based on this forecasting model and present our main empirical results on the decomposition of returns over the business cycle. Potential solutions, including modeling both dr news and cf news directly, the bayesian model averaging approach, and the principal component analysis, are explored.

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该论文也是基于这样的思路提出了一种奖励再分配算法：randomized return decomposition (RRD)来求解这样的问题。 RRD将Return Decomposition和uniform reward redistribution在理论上结合了起来。 Table estimates the surprise decompositions in equations (21) and (23) To project these results into an infinite horizon, we employ a var model and estimate an infinite horizon decomposition that supports the dominance of returns at longer horizons.

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Return decomposition, discount rate risk, cash flow risk, discount rate beta, cash flow beta, value stock, growth stock.

Long chen, xinlei zhao, return decomposition, the review of financial studies, vol In this paper we propose a decomposition not of return variance but of the realized return for a given period This allows for an interpretation of the movement of the stock market period by period.